Pakistan's Central Front

by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, and Ali Frick

After narrowly surviving a suicide attack in October that killed 150 people, former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated on Dec. 27, as she waved to a throng of supporters from the sunroof of her armored vehicle. On the same day, four aides to former prime minister Nawaz Sharif were also shot and killed at a separate election rally. These deplorable acts put a spotlight on the rising political instability and escalating violence that has deteriorated Pakistani society at a time when the United States's focus has been catastrophically diverted to Iraq. "Pakistan today exemplifies the failure of the Bush administration's insistence that Iraq is the 'central front on the war on terror,'" and it is at the nexus of the most pressing security challenges faced by the international community. A recent survey of foreign policy experts found that more than half of them "believe the current U.S. policy toward Pakistan is having a negative impact on U.S. national security." Bhutto's assassination, while tragic, provides a critical opportunity to begin to alter the Bush administration's flawed approach. Rather than being locked into a short-term strategy of supporting individual Pakistani leaders, the United States must start investing resources into a long-term comprehensive, integrated counterterrorism strategy that places the emphasis on strong democratic institutions.

NEED FOR INVESTIGATION: Nearly a week after Bhutto was killed in a well-planned attack, authorities are still not certain who was behind it. "Finding and naming those responsible must be the first order of business." Pakistani investigators, "working from a single intelligence intercept collected the day after Ms. Bhutto's death, have identified a militant leader, Baitullah Mehsud, as the chief suspect behind the attack." But the thinly sourced nature of that explanation has not convinced American officials, and the Pakistani government's handling of the investigation has not engendered much confidence. Just yesterday, "in a dramatic U-turn," the government was forced to apologize for claiming that Bhutto had died of a skull fracture rather than bullet wounds. Because the Musharraf government had failed to provide sufficient security arrangements for Bhutto prior to her death and because there is rampant speculation that government elements may even have been involved in the attack, there is an added burden on the Pakistani government to lead an investigation that is both independent and credible.

FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS: Pakistan's national parliamentary elections, which were scheduled to be held in a week, will now "be delayed by one month following the turmoil sparked by Benazir Bhutto's assassination." A temporary postponement appears to be the most prudent course. "Free and fair elections are essential, but the timing must be predicated on a political environment in which such elections are possible." Even before Bhutto's assassination, an international pre-election monitoring team led by former Senate majority leader Tom Daschle warned that the integrity of the Pakistani elections may be seriously compromised due to lack of electoral transparency and insecurity. Rather than press the Pakistani government to correct its institutional flaws, President Bush said last month that President Musharraf "truly is somebody who believes in democracy" after Musharraf imposed emergency rule, shut down free media outlets, sacked judges, and jailed thousands of lawyers and civil society activists.

A PAKISTAN POLICY NEEDED: In 1999, Bush could not name Pervez Musharraf as the leader of Pakistan, but still managed to claim that Musharraf was "committed to reinstating democratically elected government." In eight years, Bush has learned Musharraf's name but hasn't progressed much beyond his original talking point. Center for American Progress Senior Fellow Brian Katulis -- who recently returned from a visit to Pakistan -- writes the Bush administration has unwisely hitched its "plans to singular personalities rather than developing the institutions to advance U.S. interests." "We need a Pakistani policy, a consistent policy toward the government and the people of Pakistan, not a policy that holds all our hopes on one man, Musharraf," said Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joseph Biden (D-DE). Katulis writes that the first step in recalibrating U.S. policy is to begin "building a system based on rule of law and democracy that is capable of bringing terrorists to justice and ensuring that the judiciary is independent." Biden has argued that America should increase its non-military financial aid to Pakistan, taking an approach centered on the well-being of the Pakistani people. "Instead of funding military hardware, it would build schools, clinics, and roads," he said

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