Andy Barr
Fri Sep 26, 2008
As the proposed $700 billion bailout plan met resistance Wednesday on Capitol Hill, billionaire investor Warren Buffett sounded the alarm on the peril of a failed rescue attempt of the financial markets.
“We are looking over a precipice in terms of the economic condition of the country for the next few years,” Buffett said during an interview on the Fox Business Channel. “If Congress doesn't help us on this, heaven help us.”
Congress will likely scale back the massive bailout plan.
Lawmakers have expressed concerns about oversight, as well as over the rushed nature of the bill. Party leaders and the president have shown support for the bailout since it was crafted over the weekend, but an increasing number of both Republican and Democratic members are expressing doubts over the plan.
President Bush is scheduled to speak to the nation on the economy tonight, and John McCain announced that he is suspending his campaign and hoping to postpone Friday night’s debate, to focus on the economy.
But no matter what Bush or the presidential candidates do, Buffett said the fate of the financial system is in the hands of Congress.
“The only thing that counts in the economic world today is the U.S. Congress,” Buffett said. “They hold the fate of the U.S. economy for the next few years in their hands. And I think they'll do the right thing. I have great confidence — I mean, when they recognize what the problem is, they will do the right thing. They won't do the perfect thing. Nobody can do the perfect thing.
“Later on we'll let the historians decide who to blame. I could go around saying I told you so on this or that. But it doesn't make a difference.”
Wachovia Slumps After WaMu's Seizure, Impasse on Bank Bailout
By David Mildenberg and Linda Shen
Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Wachovia Corp. slumped, leading other banks stocks lower, after negotiations on the government's financial bailout stalled and Washington Mutual Inc. was seized by regulators and sold to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Wachovia, which the New York Times said today is in early merger talks with Citigroup Inc., dropped $3.70, or 27 percent, to $10 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Cleveland-based National City Corp. fell 27 percent and Downey Financial Corp. slipped 48 percent. All three lenders plunged more than 80 percent in the past 12 months.
``Washington Mutual showed that one of the big ones can go down, and if you are looking at who else in the top 10 is facing the most pressure, Wachovia is right there,'' said Stan Smith, a banking professor at the University of Central Florida in Orlando.
WaMu was taken over by regulators yesterday in the biggest U.S. bank failure after customers of the Seattle-based lender withdrew $16.7 billion from accounts since Sept. 16. The savings and loan was ``unsound,'' the Office of Thrift Supervision said. The collapse came as lawmakers planned to meet again after talks on Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's bailout reached an impasse.
The Times said there's no guarantee the talks between Citigroup and Wachovia will result in a deal, citing people briefed on the matter. Citigroup spokeswoman Christina Pretto declined to comment on the Times report.
Steel's E-Mail
Fears of mounting losses on Wachovia's $122 billion in option adjustable-rate mortgages helped push the Charlotte, North Carolina-based company's shares down by 64 percent this year before today's trading. Chief Executive Officer Robert Steel is treating the loans as distressed debt and named a senior bank official, David Carroll, to lead an effort to minimize losses on option ARMs that the bank expects to total about $14 billion.
Steel sent an e-mail to employees today saying he's ``optimistic'' about the government rescue package.
``The Treasury plan under consideration by Congress and the fact that the WaMu situation was smoothly resolved for its customers are two constructive and important steps toward restoring confidence in the financial system,'' Steel wrote in the e-mail, which was confirmed by the bank. ``We are aggressively addressing our challenges and are working to strategically strengthen and manage capital and liquidity in this challenging environment.''
`Silent' Run
Still, customers may not be assuaged. Louise Pitt, a credit analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote in a report today that Wachovia may face the possibility of a ``silent'' run on desposits similar to that confronted by WaMu.
Outflows could come because of ``negative industry headlines and fear among retail customers,'' Pitt wrote in a report today. The bank has about $391 billion in core deposits out of a total of $436 billion, said Pitt, who cut her rating on Wachovia to ``trading sell'' from ``outperform.''
Christy Phillips-Brown, a spokeswoman for the bank, said the company doesn't comment on analyst reports. She noted that the bank has opened 745,000 retail deposit accounts since June, a 6 percent increase from the average daily sales rate in the first half of the year. Customers have also reinvested their certificates of deposits with Wachovia at a faster clip than during the first half of the year, she said.
CD Rates
The lender is paying among the highest CD rates among U.S. banks, which is typically seen as a signal that is struggling to win investor confidence, analyst Sean Ryan of Sterne Agee & Leach Inc. said today in an interview.
National City is well capitalized, has strong deposit inflows and has a fundamentally different business model than WaMu, said spokeswoman Kristen Baird Adams in an interview today.
``National City is a diversified commercial bank'' with no option ARMs, Adams said. ``WaMu was a thrift whose primary business was mortgage related.''
Wachovia had a total of $167 billion in mortgages as of June 30, ranking second among U.S. lenders behind Bank of America Corp.'s $239 billion, and followed by Citigroup Inc.'s $145 billion, according to an Oppenheimer & Co. report.
``All eyes are now on Wachovia,'' said Anton Schutz, president of Mendon Capital Advisors Corp. in Rochester, New York.
Option-ARM Mortgages
Wachovia became the largest option-ARM seller through its $24 billion acquisition in 2006 of Golden West Financial Corp., the Oakland, California-based lender that popularized the product over the previous 30 years. Wachovia expects cumulative losses of about 11 percent to 12 percent on its option-ARM loans.
``We feel it is likely that Wachovia will need to issue equity to provide greater reassurance about its liquidity and solvency,'' Mike Mayo, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG, wrote in a note today. He reduced his target price to $11 from $16 a share.
Mayo expects the firm will need an additional $11 billion in capital, assuming a 20 percent discount on its ARM portfolio, he wrote. If common shares were issued at yesterday's closing price, it would dilute current shareholders by about one third.
California Slump
Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Edward Najarian expects the losses to be in the 15 percent to 17 percent range, according to a Sept. 9 report. Housing prices in California declined by a record 41 percent in August from a year earlier, the California Association of Realtors said yesterday. Almost half of Wachovia's option ARMs are in California.
Option ARMs allow borrowers to skip part of their payment and add that sum to their principal. Monthly costs eventually increase after introductory interest rates as low as 1 percent.
Because typical option ARM borrowers make less than the full payment each month, according to Fitch Ratings, they don't build equity in their homes. When house prices fall, borrowers often owe more than their homes are worth. That leaves lenders facing losses if the borrower defaults.
Downey, based in Newport Beach, California, ranked fourth among option ARM lenders behind Wachovia, WaMu and Bank of America's Countrywide Financial Corp. Downey said it held $6.9 billion in option ARMs at the end of the second quarter.
Downey Financial
Downey now has less than a month to submit a long-term business plan to its chief regulator, the Office of Thrift supervision. The agency ordered the bank on Sept. 5 to raise cash by the end of the year and halt dividend payments.
Downey spokeswoman Elizabeth Stover declined to comment.
``A bailout plan needs to be approved as credit markets have frozen, credit spreads have widened and it's getting more difficult for businesses and consumers to get access to credit,'' said BMO Capital Markets analyst Peter Winter in a note to investors today.
Wachovia's shares advanced last week on speculation it would be a beneficiary of the Treasury's rescue plan. The company's option ARMs may be simpler to sell to the government than securitized pools of loans, said Kevin Stein, associate director of the California Reinvestment Coalition, a San Francisco-based nonprofit.
Wachovia holds the loans on its balance sheet, while WaMu and other big option-ARM lenders pooled the loans into securities that were sold to investors, he said.
`A Major Hit'
``If Wachovia could unload a third or a half of its option-ARM portfolio without taking a major hit to earnings, that would be a very positive development,'' said Gerard Cassidy, an analyst at RBC Capital Management in Portland, Maine. ``Whole loans are a lot easier for the government to buy than CDOs or CDO squared,'' he said, referring to collateralized debt obligations.
At the time of its failure, WaMu had $28.4 billion in outstanding bonds, with Capital Research and Management the largest debt-holder, Bloomberg data show. All three major credit agencies rate WaMu junk, the only company in the 24-member KBW Bank Index that's below investment grade.
Wachovia, which has $125.9 billion of outstanding bonds, has investment-grade ratings from Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's Corp. and Fitch. Moody's and Fitch have a negative outlook on the lender, indicating a possible downgrade.
The cost to protect against a default by Wachovia soared to distressed levels today. Credit-default swap sellers demanded 25 percentage points upfront and 5 percentage points a year to protect Wachovia bonds from default for five years, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. That means it would cost $2.5 million initially and $500,000 a year to protect $10 million in Wachovia bonds, compared with $670,000 a year and no upfront payment yesterday.
During the past three quarters, WaMu lost $6.3 billion. It kept skidding even after joining a list of financial companies the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission protected from short selling in an effort to stabilize stock markets.
To contact the reporters on this story: Linda Shen in New York at lshen21@bloomberg.net; David Mildenberg in Charlotte at dmildenberg@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 26, 2008 17:10 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoYZQp4yUn.w&refer=home
Wall Street Executives Made $3 Billion Before Crisis (Update1)
By Tom Randall and Jamie McGee
Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street's five biggest firms paid more than $3 billion in the last five years to their top executives, while they presided over the packaging and sale of loans that helped bring down the investment-banking system.
Merrill Lynch & Co. paid its chief executives the most, with Stanley O'Neal taking in $172 million from 2003 to 2007 and John Thain getting $86 million, including a signing bonus, after beginning work in December. The company agreed to be acquired by Bank of America Corp. for about $50 billion on Sept. 15. Bear Stearns Cos.'s James ``Jimmy'' Cayne made $161 million before the company collapsed and was sold to JPMorgan Chase & Co. in June.
Democrats and Republicans in Congress are demanding that limits be placed on executive pay as part of the $700 billion financial rescue plan proposed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. The former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO, who received about $111 million between 2003 and 2006, said in testimony to Congress on Sept. 24 that he would accept such limits as part of the plan, after initially opposing them.
``Shareholders and boards should have done something about this a long time ago,'' said Charles Elson, director of the Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance at the University of Delaware in Newark. ``They justified these levels of pay on the idea that they're all geniuses. I think that balloon has burst.''
Wall Street firms have shared profits liberally with employees. The five biggest -- Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns -- paid their 185,687 employees $66 billion in 2007, as problems with subprime mortgages mounted, including about $39 billion in bonuses. That amounts to average pay of $353,089 per employee, including an average bonus of $211,849. The five firms had combined net income of $93 billion during the five years through 2007.
CEO Pay Doubled
The $3.1 billion paid to the top five executives at the firms between 2003 and 2007 was about three times what JPMorgan spent to buy Bear Stearns. Goldman Sachs had the highest total, with $859 million, followed by Bear Stearns at $609 million. CEO pay at the five firms increased each year, doubling to $253 million in 2007, according to data compiled from company filings.
Executive-compensation figures include salary, bonuses, stock and stock options, some awarded for past performance. The options were valued at a third of the fair-market price of the stock at the time the options were granted, a method recommended by Graef Crystal, a compensation specialist and author of the Crystal Report on Executive Compensation, an online newsletter. The companies value the options using different methods.
`Make It Rain'
Wall Street firms have paid employees a greater share of revenue than any other industry, about 50 percent, Crystal said. That tradition at investment banks comes from their history as closely held partnerships of investors who put their own capital at risk, he said.
``In Wall Street and Hollywood, the profits tend to come in great big packets, and everyone wants a piece,'' said Crystal, a former Bloomberg columnist. ``Whether it's the movie `Dark Knight' or a huge merger deal, he who can make it rain, he who can bring everyone to the theater, can earn whatever he wants.''
Until the rain stops.
Lehman Brothers filed for the biggest bankruptcy in history on Sept. 15, with more than $613 billion in debt. The same day, Merrill Lynch was sold to Bank of America for $29 a share, about 70 percent below the stock's high of $97.53 on Jan. 24, 2007.
Goldman and Morgan Stanley, the two biggest independent U.S. investment banks, were forced to convert to bank holding companies, giving them more access to Federal Reserve funds and buying time to acquire deposits. Goldman Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein made $57.6 million in 2007 in salary and bonus, which includes stock and options granted at the beginning of the fiscal year to reward performance the previous year. Co- presidents Gary Cohn and Jon Winkelried each got $56 million.
`Tied to Performance'
Morgan Stanley's current and former chief executives, John Mack and Philip Purcell, were paid about $194 million over the last five years.
Mark Lake, a spokesman for Morgan Stanley, pointed to Mack's decision not to take a bonus for 2007 and said the $1.6 million in salary and other compensation he was awarded last year isn't ``a lot'' compared with other Wall Street CEOs.
``He has taken everything he had since rejoining the firm in equity, other than salary,'' Lake said. ``There's a difference in taking stock in the firm as a bonus and taking cash. Stock in the firm, obviously you are tied to performance of the firm.''
Goldman Sachs spokesman Michael Duvally declined to comment. Merrill Lynch spokeswoman Jessica Oppenheim, JPMorgan spokesman Brian Marchiony and Lehman spokeswoman Monique Wise didn't return calls for comment.
Paulson, Bush
``The American people are angry about executive compensation, and rightfully so,'' Paulson told a House panel on Sept. 24, departing from his prepared remarks. ``We must find a way to address this in the legislation, but without undermining the effectiveness of this program.''
President George W. Bush said that night in a televised address to the nation that the plan would provide ``urgently needed money so banks and other financial institutions can avoid collapse'' and ``should make certain that failed executives do not receive a windfall from your tax dollars.''
Congressional Republicans splintered late yesterday over the proposed $700 billion rescue plan. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said this morning at a news conference that Democrats are circulating a draft of legislation that contains limits on executive compensation and ensures that Congress has oversight over the bailout. Lawmakers from both parties are meeting again today in Washington.
Weak Record
The U.S. government has a weak record when it comes to regulating compensation, said Kevin Murphy, a professor of finance at the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles.
``Every government attempt that has existed to limit or regulate CEO pay has backfired,'' Murphy said. ``I'm fairly confident this one will backfire too. There are always loopholes.''
Regulation of golden parachutes, or protection for executives in the case of an acquisition, were circumvented in the 1980s with severance agreements, and Nixon's wage-and-price- control experiment in the 1970s ultimately failed, Murphy said.
``It's either the compensation committee or the general counsel or the head of human resources who are trying to negotiate a pay package with someone who will be their boss in a week,'' he said. ``These are things that can be done a lot better.''
Corporate Governance
Rather than government regulation, the solution is in better corporate governance, Elson said. Companies should negotiate more aggressively with executives and should establish rules that encourage shareholders to protest excessive pay. The rescue package is not the place to have that debate, he said.
``This will get in the way'' of passing the $700 billion financial rescue legislation, Elson said. ``We are in a crisis. The patient is dying. Let's work on the details as soon as we get the patient out of the emergency room when we can do it in a thoughtful or deliberate manner.''
Not all Wall Street CEOs have escaped unscathed. Cayne sold a Bear Stearns holding once worth $1 billion for $61 million in March. Lehman's Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld, who made $165 million between 2003 and 2007, sold 2.88 million of his firm's shares for 16 cents to 30 cents apiece, or less than $500,000, according to a regulatory filing.
Fuld owned 10.9 million shares and restricted stock units as of Jan. 31, valued at $931 million at their peak. He also had in- the-money options and other stock worth almost $300 million, according to Crystal.
To contact the reporter on this story: Tom Randall in New York at trandall6@bloomberg.net; Jamie McGee in New York at jmcgee8@bloomberg.net.
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